Summary:
Nate Geraci predicts that the approval of an XRP ETF is imminent, emphasizing that Ripple’s legal victory and XRP’s market capitalization are key factors driving interest.
The race for an XRP ETF in the U.S. is heating up as firms like BlackRock and Fidelity are expected to enter the market, following approval in Brazil.
The likelihood of an XRP ETF approval has risen to 82%, with JPMorgan analysts forecasting institutional demand could reach $8 billion within a year.
The race for an XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) in the U.S. is heating up as leading financial firms, including BlackRock and Fidelity, are expected to enter the competition.
Brazil has outpaced the U.S. with an already active XRP ETF, following Hashdex’s approval a month ago, making it a pioneer in this financial instrument.
Nate Geraci: XRP ETF is only a matter of time
Nate Geraci has stated that the approval of an XRP ETF is just “a matter of time.” According to the ETF Store President, XRP is the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, excluding stablecoins, making it an attractive candidate for major ETF issuers.
He predicts that top asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity will enter the XRP ETF market, following the footsteps of other firms such as Bitwise, Canary Capital, WisdomTree, and Grayscale, which have already filed applications.
“The Ripple lawsuit is nearing its conclusion… Clearly, in my opinion, the approval of an XRP ETF is just a matter of time. And yes, I expect BlackRock, Fidelity, and others to join. XRP is currently the third-largest non-stablecoin cryptocurrency by market cap. The biggest ETF issuers won’t ignore this,” Geraci wrote.
While Fidelity’s stance remains unclear, BlackRock has recently stated that it will prioritize Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs due to their strong performance and market maturity. Specifically, regulatory uncertainty and lower market share have led BlackRock to avoid launching ETFs for altcoins like Solana or XRP.
“We are only at the tip of the iceberg with Bitcoin, and especially Ethereum. Only a small fraction of our clients own IBIT and ETHA, so that is what we are focusing on (compared to launching new altcoin ETFs),” said Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg, quoting Jay Jacobs, Head of ETFs at BlackRock.
However, growing confidence in an XRP ETF stems from recent positive developments in Ripple’s long-standing legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The regulatory agency recently dropped its lawsuit against Ripple, marking a significant victory for the blockchain company.
As BeInCrypto reported, Ripple will retain $75 million from its settlement with the SEC as the case nears its final stages.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has expressed renewed optimism about the company’s future in the U.S. following this breakthrough. According to him, this legal victory paves the way for institutional adoption.
Five months ago, Garlinghouse predicted that an XRP ETF was inevitable. The recent regulatory clarity has only reinforced this belief.
XRP ETF Approval Probability Soars to 82%
In February, the SEC began its 240-day countdown to review XRP ETF applications, with approval odds rising significantly.
According to Polymarket data, the probability of an XRP ETF approval in 2025 has surged to 82%. At the same time, there is a 41% chance of approval before July 31, 2025.
This growing confidence reflects the SEC’s shifting stance on cryptocurrency-based ETFs after approving Bitcoin ETFs earlier this year.
JPMorgan analysts predict that XRP ETFs could attract between $6 billion and $8 billion within 6 to 12 months. This forecast highlights strong demand for regulated crypto investment products, particularly among institutional investors who want exposure to digital assets without the risks of direct custody.
However, despite the positive outlook for XRP ETFs, investor demand for additional crypto ETFs beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum remains uncertain.
Nic Puckrin, financial analyst and founder of The Coin Bureau, believes that additional ETFs may not be necessary in an increasingly saturated market.
“New ‘Made in America’ ETFs from Trump Media—expected to feature U.S.-produced altcoins alongside stocks—won’t bring anything new. Their success will likely be short-lived, and their long-term performance won’t stand out. Investors will continue to prefer BTC ETFs over all this noise,” Puckrin told BeInCrypto.
Data from BeInCrypto shows that XRP is trading at $2.47 at the time of writing, reflecting a slight increase of nearly 2% in the past 24 hours.
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